Historic shifts are now underway

February 18th and 19th will be long remembered dates.  Heck, 2008 will be analogous to 1989, I think, based on the last 24 hours and the 24 hours to come.

1. Slovenia, who is one of my favorite countries other than this one, has given the green light to Kosovo becoming its own nation.  They did so as the leader of the EU, the first Eastern Bloc nation to head the body in the rotating presidency.  We quickly followed suit once the EU welcomed Kosovo into existence, and the Serbs went bananas.  They've withdrawn their envoys to Washington DC and the Hague, and individual Serbs are making small parries at the Kosovo border.  So far, the Kosovo police are repelling these attacks, but the Slovenes may be forced into action.  Whether they merely use their own tiny force, marshal support among other Balkan nations, or activate an EU/NATO force, it will decide the course of history.  They may just use their own army, which, when it was the Slovene police, defeated the Yugoslav National Army and gained their own independence in 10 days without any casualties.  Slovenes are much like Israelis in that sense: they're fairly smart, on average, but you don't want to tick them off.  There is some evidence that Spartacus was Slovene.

2. Fidel Castro has resigned.  This is historic for several reasons.  One, it throws the future of Cuba up in the air for a day or so.  Two, it doesn't make for as much chaos as if he served for life.  Three, it shows that Castro isn't arrogant enough to serve for life.  In the next few days and weeks, the island nation may chart a new course, and with the election of a new president here, it may change our relationship to Cuba, change our immigration policy regarding Cubans, and change trade patterns in the Western Hemisphere (mainly ours).

3. Musharraf's party is voted out of power in what can only be described as a bumpy but fair election.  Thank you to the Senators from the Foreign Relations committee for going over there.  This throws Pakistan and the entire region's future up in the air.  In a way, this is the opposite of the Cuban situation, in that the nation has spoken and the ball is in one man's court, rather than the other way around.  Will Musharraf relinquish power?  Will he invalidate the results?  Who knows?

4. Our primary trudges onward.  Will Huckabee continue to score wins, despite the big name conservatives grudgingly backing McCain?  Will this translate into a platform at the RNC convention that will paint McCain as more conservative than even he wants to be?  Will Obama manage two wins tonight, and if so, will it change the dynamic of the Democratic contest at all?

Yes, 2008 is shaping up to be a time of change, perhaps as momentous as the shifts of 1989.