Daily Kos

Sometime in the next 2 days, Edwards endorses

Sun May 11, 2008 at 03:07:57 PM PDT

Well, I don't KNOW that.

But I suspect it.

And I think he's going for Obama.

Follow my logic below the fold.

Point #1: We're pretty sure he voted for a "him."  He said on Morning Joe, "I already voted for him."  He didn't notice he said that.  Mika didn't notice.  Tiki didn't notice.  Everyone kept pressing him to divulge who he's endorsing, and he kept being coy and talking about how nice Obama is.  Unless he thinks of Clinton as a "him," he meant Obama.

Point #2: His wife probably didn't vote for the same person.  He refused to answer that question, and sheepishly smiled.  I know that smile, as a married man.  It's the "please don't make me talk about opinion differences in public" smile.

Point #3: Elizabeth has just stopped short of appearing with Hillary Clinton on multiple occasions.  This further solidifies point #2, explains why the two of them haven't endorsed before this, and indicates that Elizabeth favors Clinton and John favors Obama.

Point #4: John says he will endorse the "him" for whom he voted.

Point #5: John has 19 delegates left in his pool.  Obama is favored to get about 6 from a horrible showing in West Virginia.  That adds up to 25.  Clinton is expected to get 22 from West Virginia.

Point #6: If John endorses Obama on Monday, it swamps the AM papers on Tuesday, right as West Virginians get up to vote.  That could suppress or swing votes, and soften the blow by giving Obama more than 6 delegates.  In addition, the meme on TV would be that Obama just got 19 delegates (Edwards' pool).

Point #7: If John appears with Obama as he gives his concession speech, to announce that he will be giving his support and his delegates to Obama, then the AM coverage the next day is a split decision.  Some outlets, like MSNBC, may even point out that Obama has gotten more delegates on the 13th than Clinton.

Point #8: Whether #6 or #7 come to pass, either deflates the popular vote argument by getting Obama that much nearer to the 2025 and by showing how worthless a blow-out win for Clinton is at this point.

Point #9: By doing this now, John Edwards starts talk of another dream team, which the cable news heads will give dopey names like "Ebony and Ivory" etc etc etc ... and that will not benefit Clinton one bit.  It also puts the Obama-Richardson idea in competition with a new idea, but the media can only talk about two ideas at the same time, more or less.  Suffice it to say, it kills Obama-Clinton on most outlets.  And whether Richardson or Edwards (or both) get passed over for the VP nod, they will almost certainly both get a bigger prize than Clinton once Edwards comes forward and precludes a pre-May 13 negotiated exit for Clinton.

So, it won't be today, but I expect it in the next two days.  The only question is whether Edwards will spend most of Monday and Tuesday stumping for Obama in WV, or whether he will come out in the 11th hour and suck all the oxygen out of Clinton's victory.

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